HUM Humana
$417.66
▼ 3.4%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
HUM at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 38/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 48.2% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$47.63B
P/E
44.9x
Forward P/E (est.)
64.14x
ROE
6.2%
Revenue Growth
14.1%
EPS Growth
-33.9%
Profit Margin
0.8%
FCF Yield
8.5%
Debt / Equity
0.7x
ROIC
10.0%
Interest Coverage
5.48x
Current Ratio
1.77x
Dividend Yield
0.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
8.1%
Rating Score
38/100
Business Overview
Humana (HUM) is a large-cap company in the Managed Health Care industry, part of the Health Care sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $47.63B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $129.66B in revenue and $1.19B in net profit.
Our model rates HUM Weak (38/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
2.7% average over the last 3 years
±1.8 pts around 4.4% across 10 years
grew in 8 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
10.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what HUM's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. HUM trades near $417.66, above its 50-day average ($314.19) and 200-day average ($253.01). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 65 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. HUM's is $14.62 (~3.5% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, HUM found buyers near $333.55 (support) and sellers near $415.00 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $163.11–$415.00. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
11.8%
Revenue moved from $54.38B in 2016 to $129.66B in 2025, a 10.1% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 14.1% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
2.1%
Net Margin
0.9%
ROE
6.2%
Humana keeps about 0.8% of each sales dollar as net profit. Return on equity is 6.2% and return on invested capital about 10.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$2.60B
Net Debt
-$2.35B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.87x
Debt / Equity
0.7x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.7x, and operating profit covers interest about 5.5x, with a current ratio of 1.8x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $2.60B of total debt against $4.95B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$921.00M
Free Cash Flow
$375.00M
FCF Margin
0.3%
In the latest year Humana produced about $921.00M of operating cash flow and $375.00M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 8.5% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockCoverage is weak, the payout was cut recently, or it's being financed rather than earned — treat the current yield as fragile.
Dividend yield
0.9%
Per share (latest FY)
$3.54
Total paid (latest FY)
$430.00M
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 115% of free cash flow
36% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
44.9x
P/S
0.35x
P/B
1.97x
EV / EBITDA
—
HUM trades at 44.9x trailing earnings (about 64.1x on estimated forward earnings), 0.3x sales, and 2.0x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 8.1% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$93.97
Current price
$417.66
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$375.00M
Growth, years 1–5
14.1%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where HUM sits versus the Health Care companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 83 Health Care companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How HUM stacks up against its Health Care peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 83 rated Health Care companies we cover, HUM ranks #65 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (44.9x P/E vs. 26.1x median) with a lower return on equity (6.2% vs. 14.1%) and faster revenue growth (14.1% vs. 7.6%).
P/E vs sector
44.9x
median 26.1x
ROE vs sector
6.2%
median 14.1%
Growth vs sector
14.1%
median 7.6%
Sector rank
#65
of 83 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Health Care companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 83 rated companies among the 324 Health Care stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$1,773.09 – $2,955.15
vs. $417.66 today · implied CAGR 34% – 48%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $147.82B | $168.51B | $192.10B | $219.00B | $249.66B |
| Net income | $4.43B | $5.06B | $5.76B | $6.57B | $7.49B |
| EPS | $38.88 | $44.33 | $50.53 | $57.61 | $65.67 |
| Share price (low) | $1,049.81 | $1,196.79 | $1,364.34 | $1,555.34 | $1,773.09 |
| Share price (high) | $1,749.69 | $1,994.64 | $2,273.89 | $2,592.24 | $2,955.15 |
| CAGR (low–high) | 151% / 319% | 69% / 119% | 48% / 76% | 39% / 58% | 34% / 48% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for HUM:
- Revenue is growing 14.1% a year, a sign of real demand.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~8.5%) funds buybacks and dividends.
Bear Case
The case against HUM:
- Thin net margins (0.8%) leave little room for error.
- A rich 44.9x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (38/100).
Key Risks
Valuation risk — at 44.9x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Margin risk — thin profitability (0.8%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Humana is a large-cap health care business still growing nicely, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 44.9x earnings, which our model scores Weak (38/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 33 Wall Street analysts covering HUM recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+15 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
HUM's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
HUM — frequently asked questions
Is HUM a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Humana Weak (38/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is HUM's rating on The Stocks School?
Humana currently scores 38/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does HUM's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Humana's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for HUM calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this HUM analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell HUM. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.