HCA HCA Healthcare
$459.87
▼ 1.8%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
HCA at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 61/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 0.4% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$91.07B
P/E
15.02x
Forward P/E (est.)
11.62x
ROE
695.7%
Revenue Growth
6.7%
EPS Growth
29.2%
Profit Margin
8.9%
FCF Yield
8.9%
Debt / Equity
54.2x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
0.83x
Dividend Yield
0.8%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
0.5%
Rating Score
61/100
Business Overview
HCA Healthcare (HCA) is a large-cap company in the Health Care Facilities industry, part of the Health Care sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $91.07B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $75.60B in revenue and $6.78B in net profit.
Our model rates HCA Favorable (61/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what HCA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. HCA trades near $459.87, above its 50-day average ($403.65) and 200-day average ($459.77). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 70 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. HCA's is $10.60 (~2.3% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, HCA found buyers near $356.89 (support) and sellers near $416.54 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $330.00–$556.52. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.0× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
6.5%
Revenue moved from $51.34B in 2019 to $75.60B in 2025, a 6.7% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a steady 6.7% year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
85.0%
Operating Margin
15.7%
Net Margin
9.0%
ROE
695.7%
HCA Healthcare keeps about 8.9% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 85.0% gross margin and 15.7% operating margin. Return on equity is 695.7%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$44.37B
Net Debt
$43.43B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
54.2x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 54.2x, with a current ratio of 0.8x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $44.37B of total debt against $940.00M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$12.64B
Free Cash Flow
$7.69B
FCF Margin
10.2%
In the latest year HCA Healthcare produced about $12.64B of operating cash flow and $7.69B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 8.9% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
0.8%
Per share (latest FY)
$2.88
Total paid (latest FY)
$679.00M
History on record
7 years
dividend uses 9% of free cash flow
10% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 7 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
15.02x
P/S
1.16x
P/B
—
EV / EBITDA
—
HCA trades at 15.0x trailing earnings (about 11.6x on estimated forward earnings), 1.2x sales. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 0.5% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$693.55
Current price
$459.87
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$7.69B
Growth, years 1–5
6.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where HCA sits versus the Health Care companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 83 Health Care companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How HCA stacks up against its Health Care peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 83 rated Health Care companies we cover, HCA ranks #26 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (15x P/E vs. 26.1x median) with a higher return on equity (695.7% vs. 14.1%) and slower revenue growth (6.7% vs. 7.6%).
P/E vs sector
15x
median 26.1x
ROE vs sector
695.7%
median 14.1%
Growth vs sector
6.7%
median 7.6%
Sector rank
#26
of 83 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Health Care companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 83 rated companies among the 324 Health Care stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$433.72 – $722.86
vs. $459.87 today · implied CAGR -1% – 9%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $80.89B | $86.55B | $92.61B | $99.10B | $106.03B |
| Net income | $7.28B | $7.79B | $8.34B | $8.92B | $9.54B |
| EPS | $36.76 | $39.34 | $42.09 | $45.04 | $48.19 |
| Share price (low) | $330.88 | $354.04 | $378.83 | $405.34 | $433.72 |
| Share price (high) | $551.47 | $590.07 | $631.38 | $675.57 | $722.86 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -28% / 20% | -12% / 13% | -6% / 11% | -3% / 10% | -1% / 9% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for HCA:
- Strong return on equity (695.7%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~8.9%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (61/100).
Bear Case
The case against HCA:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 54.2x) adds financial risk.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 54.2x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: HCA Healthcare is a large-cap health care business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 15.0x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (61/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 30 Wall Street analysts covering HCA recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-7 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
HCA's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
HCA — frequently asked questions
Is HCA a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates HCA Healthcare Favorable (61/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is HCA's rating on The Stocks School?
HCA Healthcare currently scores 61/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does HCA's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from HCA Healthcare's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for HCA calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this HCA analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell HCA. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.