GFL GFL Environmental Inc
$43.31
▼ 0.6%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
GFL at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 21/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 16.7% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$15.08B
P/E
91.94x
Forward P/E (est.)
131.34x
ROE
2.8%
Revenue Growth
-12.1%
EPS Growth
-92.9%
Profit Margin
3.1%
FCF Yield
9.3%
Debt / Equity
1.09x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
0.58x
Dividend Yield
0.1%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
8.1%
Rating Score
21/100
Business Overview
GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) is a large-cap NYSE-listed company in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry, within the Industrials sector, with a market value around $15.08B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $4.83B in revenue and $2.80B in net profit.
Our model rates GFL Weak (21/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what GFL's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. GFL trades near $43.31, above its 50-day average ($36.73) and 200-day average ($41.96). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 75 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. GFL's is $1.27 (~2.9% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, GFL found buyers near $34.39 (support) and sellers near $40.52 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $33.33–$51.51. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.9× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
6.5%
Revenue moved from $2.44B in 2019 to $4.83B in 2025, a 12.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 12.1% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Profitability
Gross Margin
20.6%
Operating Margin
6.3%
Net Margin
58.0%
ROE
2.8%
GFL Environmental Inc keeps about 3.1% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 20.6% gross margin and 6.3% operating margin. Return on equity is 2.8%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$5.42B
Net Debt
$5.36B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
1.09x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.1x, with a current ratio of 0.6x. That is a moderate, manageable debt load for most businesses. It carries roughly $5.42B of total debt against $62.49M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$960.68M
Free Cash Flow
$127.46M
FCF Margin
2.6%
In the latest year GFL Environmental Inc produced about $960.68M of operating cash flow and $127.46M of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 9.3% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.1%
Total paid (latest FY)
$22.70M
History on record
6 years
dividend uses 18% of free cash flow
1% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 5 years in a row
no cuts in the last 6 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
91.94x
P/S
2.9x
P/B
2.94x
EV / EBITDA
—
GFL trades at 91.9x trailing earnings (about 131.3x on estimated forward earnings), 2.9x sales, and 2.9x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 8.1% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a rich multiple that prices in a lot of future growth.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
—
Current price
$43.31
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$127.46M
Growth, years 1–5
-5.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where GFL sits versus the Industrials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How GFL stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 142 rated Industrials companies we cover, GFL ranks #138 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (91.9x P/E vs. 30.5x median) with a lower return on equity (2.8% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (-12.1% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
91.9x
median 30.5x
ROE vs sector
2.8%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
-12.1%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#138
of 142 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 142 rated companies among the 273 Industrials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$442.22 – $739.72
vs. $43.31 today · implied CAGR 59% – 76%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.97B | $5.12B | $5.28B | $5.44B | $5.60B |
| Net income | $2.49B | $2.56B | $2.64B | $2.72B | $2.80B |
| EPS | $7.14 | $7.36 | $7.58 | $7.81 | $8.04 |
| Share price (low) | $392.91 | $404.70 | $416.84 | $429.34 | $442.22 |
| Share price (high) | $657.23 | $676.94 | $697.25 | $718.17 | $739.72 |
| CAGR (low–high) | 807% / 1417% | 206% / 295% | 113% / 153% | 77% / 102% | 59% / 76% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for GFL:
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~9.3%) funds buybacks and dividends.
Bear Case
The case against GFL:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-12.1%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (3.1%) leave little room for error.
- A rich 91.9x earnings multiple prices in a lot of growth.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (21/100).
Key Risks
Valuation risk — at 91.9x earnings, disappointing results could compress the multiple.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.1x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-12.1%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (3.1%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: GFL Environmental Inc is a large-cap industrials business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 91.9x earnings, which our model scores Weak (21/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 18 Wall Street analysts covering GFL recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
GFL's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
GFL — frequently asked questions
Is GFL a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates GFL Environmental Inc Weak (21/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is GFL's rating on The Stocks School?
GFL Environmental Inc currently scores 21/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does GFL's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from GFL Environmental Inc's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for GFL calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this GFL analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell GFL. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.