AER AerCap Holdings NV
$145.75
▼ 0.1%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
AER at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 67/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 32.2% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$23.31B
P/E
5.88x
Forward P/E (est.)
4.2x
ROE
21.6%
Revenue Growth
4.9%
EPS Growth
102.5%
Profit Margin
50.7%
FCF Yield
13.5%
Debt / Equity
2.38x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
0.9%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
67/100
Business Overview
AerCap Holdings NV (AER) is a large-cap NYSE-listed company in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry, within the Industrials sector, with a market value around $23.31B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $8.52B in revenue and $3.75B in net profit.
Our model rates AER Favorable (67/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what AER's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. AER trades near $145.75, above its 50-day average ($141.83) and 200-day average ($138.32). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 72 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. AER's is $4.34 (~3.0% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, AER found buyers near $133.32 (support) and sellers near $153.18 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $105.65–$154.94. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.2× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
13.0%
Revenue moved from $5.15B in 2016 to $8.52B in 2025, a 5.7% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (4.9%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
91.3%
Operating Margin
68.0%
Net Margin
44.0%
ROE
21.6%
AerCap Holdings NV keeps about 50.7% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 91.3% gross margin and 68.0% operating margin. Return on equity is 21.6%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$43.57B
Net Debt
$42.19B
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
2.38x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 2.4x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $43.57B of total debt against $1.38B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$5.39B
Free Cash Flow
$5.39B
FCF Margin
63.3%
In the latest year AerCap Holdings NV produced about $5.39B of operating cash flow and $5.39B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 13.5% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.9%
Total paid (latest FY)
$192.44M
History on record
2 years
dividend uses 4% of free cash flow
5% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 1 year in a row
no cuts in the last 2 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
5.88x
P/S
3.03x
P/B
1.37x
EV / EBITDA
—
AER trades at 5.9x trailing earnings (about 4.2x on estimated forward earnings), 3.0x sales, and 1.4x book value. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where AER sits versus the Industrials companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 144 Industrials companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How AER stacks up against its Industrials peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 142 rated Industrials companies we cover, AER ranks #9 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (5.9x P/E vs. 30.5x median) with a higher return on equity (21.6% vs. 18.1%) and slower revenue growth (4.9% vs. 6.0%).
P/E vs sector
5.9x
median 30.5x
ROE vs sector
21.6%
median 18.1%
Growth vs sector
4.9%
median 6.0%
Sector rank
#9
of 142 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Industrials companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 142 rated companies among the 273 Industrials stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$149.51 – $239.21
vs. $145.75 today · implied CAGR 1% – 10%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.94B | $9.39B | $9.86B | $10.35B | $10.87B |
| Net income | $3.93B | $4.13B | $4.34B | $4.55B | $4.78B |
| EPS | $24.60 | $25.83 | $27.12 | $28.48 | $29.90 |
| Share price (low) | $123.00 | $129.15 | $135.61 | $142.39 | $149.51 |
| Share price (high) | $196.80 | $206.64 | $216.97 | $227.82 | $239.21 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -16% / 35% | -6% / 19% | -2% / 14% | -1% / 12% | 1% / 10% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for AER:
- High net margins (50.7%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (21.6%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~13.5%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (67/100).
Bear Case
The case against AER:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 2.4x) adds financial risk.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 2.4x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: AerCap Holdings NV is a large-cap industrials business growing at a mature pace, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 5.9x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (67/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 15 Wall Street analysts covering AER recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
AER's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
AER — frequently asked questions
Is AER a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates AerCap Holdings NV Favorable (67/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is AER's rating on The Stocks School?
AerCap Holdings NV currently scores 67/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does AER's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from AerCap Holdings NV's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for AER calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this AER analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell AER. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.