XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation
$178.04
▲ 1.9%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
XOM at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 40/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 21.8% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$588.00B
P/E
28.96x
Forward P/E (est.)
36.93x
ROE
9.8%
Revenue Growth
-4.1%
EPS Growth
-21.6%
Profit Margin
7.8%
FCF Yield
10.4%
Debt / Equity
0.17x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.13x
Dividend Yield
2.5%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
40/100
Business Overview
ExxonMobil is a low-cost integrated energy major with advantaged production in the Permian and Guyana. It throws off substantial free cash flow across the cycle and returns it generously, but earnings remain tied to volatile commodity prices.
Trade Setup & Technical Analysis
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Uptrend — price ($178.04) is above the 50-day ($147.90) and 200-day ($135.67) averages.
Setup type
Range / mean-reversion
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Low
Risk / reward
1 : 0.5
Trade levels
Entry zone
$173.36 – $178.04
Stop loss
$133.39
Target 1
$153.81
Target 2
$188.96
Target 3
$193.64
Position sizing: Standard size; risk ≤ 1.5% of capital.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is oversold (27); the MACD histogram is negative (downward momentum). Uptrend — price ($178.04) is above the 50-day ($147.90) and 200-day ($135.67) averages. ATR(14) is $3.12 (~1.8% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $134.95 and resistance near $153.81; the 52-week range is $105.53–$176.41.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is contracting at -4.1%, net margin near 7.8%, ROE roughly 9.8%; shares trade at 29x earnings. Quality score: 40/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $3.12 (~1.8%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average volume — roughly in line with normal activity.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $153.81 or a loss of $134.95.
Bullish scenario
Low-cost Guyana and Permian assets drive high-return growth.
Bearish scenario
Earnings are highly sensitive to oil and gas prices.
Invalidation
A daily close below $133.39 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what XOM's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. XOM trades near $178.04, above its 50-day average ($147.90) and 200-day average ($135.67). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 27 it is oversold — selling has been heavy and a bounce is possible.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. XOM's is $3.12 (~1.8% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, XOM found buyers near $134.95 (support) and sellers near $153.81 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $105.53–$176.41. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
5.3%
Revenue grew from $285.00B in 2021 to $350.00B in 2025, a 5.3% CAGR. The most recent year grew about -4.1% year over year, a decline reflecting cyclical or competitive pressure.
Profitability
Gross Margin
28.7%
Operating Margin
9.9%
Net Margin
7.8%
ROE
9.8%
Gross margin runs near 28.7% with operating margin around 9.9% and net margin near 7.8%. Return on equity of roughly 9.8% indicates moderate capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended steady over the period shown.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$40.00B
Net Debt
$10.00B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.19x
Debt / Equity
0.17x
Interest-bearing debt is about 8.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.17x. Leverage is low, leaving the balance sheet well within comfortable limits.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$33.95B
Free Cash Flow
$27.84B
FCF Margin
8.0%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 10.4%. Cash generation is robust and supports buybacks, dividends, and reinvestment.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
28.96x
P/S
1.8x
P/B
2.46x
EV / EBITDA
6.5x
Shares trade at roughly 29x trailing earnings (12x forward), 1.8x sales, and 7x EV/EBITDA. That is a full but defensible multiple for a quality franchise. Our internal rating is Weak.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where XOM sits versus the Energy companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 47 Energy companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How XOM stacks up against its Energy peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 47 rated Energy companies we cover, XOM ranks #41 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (29x P/E vs. 21.4x median) with a lower return on equity (9.8% vs. 13.3%) and slower revenue growth (-4.1% vs. 0.7%).
P/E vs sector
29x
median 21.4x
ROE vs sector
9.8%
median 13.3%
Growth vs sector
-4.1%
median 0.7%
Sector rank
#41
of 47 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Energy companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 47 rated companies among the 57 Energy stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$167.08 – $285.02
vs. $178.04 today · implied CAGR -1% – 10%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $360.50B | $371.31B | $382.45B | $393.93B | $405.75B |
| Net income | $28.84B | $29.71B | $30.60B | $31.51B | $32.46B |
| EPS | $8.73 | $8.99 | $9.26 | $9.54 | $9.83 |
| Share price (low) | $148.45 | $152.90 | $157.49 | $162.22 | $167.08 |
| Share price (high) | $253.24 | $260.84 | $268.66 | $276.72 | $285.02 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -17% / 42% | -7% / 21% | -4% / 15% | -2% / 12% | -1% / 10% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
- Low-cost Guyana and Permian assets drive high-return growth.
- Strong free cash flow funds a reliable, growing dividend.
- Disciplined capital allocation and balance-sheet strength.
Bear Case
- Earnings are highly sensitive to oil and gas prices.
- Long-term energy-transition demand risk.
- Limited revenue growth in a mature industry.
Key Risks
- Commodity-price volatility.
- Energy-transition and regulatory pressure.
- Capital-intensive project execution.
Final Investment Thesis
ExxonMobil is a cash-returning energy major suited to income-oriented investors comfortable with commodity cyclicality. The monitorable is free-cash-flow durability through the price cycle.
Analyst Ratings
What 30 Wall Street analysts covering XOM recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-7 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
XOM's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
XOM — frequently asked questions
Is XOM a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Exxon Mobil Corporation Weak (40/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is XOM's rating on The Stocks School?
Exxon Mobil Corporation currently scores 40/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does XOM's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Exxon Mobil Corporation's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for XOM calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this XOM analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell XOM. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.