MPC Marathon Petroleum
$478.17
▲ 0.3%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
MPC at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 48/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 45.1% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$77.76B
P/E
29.78x
Forward P/E (est.)
21.27x
ROE
27.3%
Revenue Growth
-0.9%
EPS Growth
115.0%
Profit Margin
3.4%
FCF Yield
14.9%
Debt / Equity
1.9x
ROIC
29.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.25x
Dividend Yield
1.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
2.7%
Rating Score
48/100
Business Overview
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is a large-cap company in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, part of the Energy sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $77.76B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $132.70B in revenue and $4.05B in net profit.
Our model rates MPC Neutral (48/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (8 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
7.0% average over the last 3 years
±8.4 pts around 3.6% across 8 years
grew in 3 of the last 7 year-over-year periods
positive in 7 of 8 years
29.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what MPC's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. MPC trades near $478.17, above its 50-day average ($251.22) and 200-day average ($210.63). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 55 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. MPC's is $8.03 (~1.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, MPC found buyers near $238.28 (support) and sellers near $271.28 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $158.00–$272.46. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.7× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
2.6%
Revenue moved from $86.09B in 2018 to $132.70B in 2025, a 6.4% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 0.9% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Profitability
Gross Margin
11.9%
Operating Margin
6.2%
Net Margin
3.0%
ROE
27.3%
Marathon Petroleum keeps about 3.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 11.9% gross margin and 6.2% operating margin. Return on equity is 27.3% and return on invested capital about 29.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$3.31B
Net Debt
-$4.46B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.54x
Debt / Equity
1.9x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.9x, with a current ratio of 1.3x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $3.31B of total debt against $7.77B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$8.25B
Free Cash Flow
$4.77B
FCF Margin
3.6%
In the latest year Marathon Petroleum produced about $8.25B of operating cash flow and $4.77B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 14.9% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
1.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$3.73
Total paid (latest FY)
$1.14B
History on record
8 years
dividend uses 24% of free cash flow
28% of net income paid out
no current raise streak
payout was cut at least once in the last 8 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
29.78x
P/S
0.54x
P/B
5.39x
EV / EBITDA
—
MPC trades at 29.8x trailing earnings (about 21.3x on estimated forward earnings), 0.5x sales, and 5.4x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 2.7% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a premium multiple that needs growth to justify it.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$220.23
Current price
$478.17
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$4.77B
Growth, years 1–5
-0.9%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where MPC sits versus the Energy companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 47 Energy companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How MPC stacks up against its Energy peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 47 rated Energy companies we cover, MPC ranks #33 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (29.8x P/E vs. 21.4x median) with a higher return on equity (27.3% vs. 13.3%) and slower revenue growth (-0.9% vs. 0.7%).
P/E vs sector
29.8x
median 21.4x
ROE vs sector
27.3%
median 13.3%
Growth vs sector
-0.9%
median 0.7%
Sector rank
#33
of 47 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Energy companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 47 rated companies among the 57 Energy stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$510.84 – $851.41
vs. $478.17 today · implied CAGR 1% – 12%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $136.68B | $140.78B | $145.00B | $149.35B | $153.83B |
| Net income | $4.10B | $4.22B | $4.35B | $4.48B | $4.62B |
| EPS | $25.22 | $25.97 | $26.75 | $27.55 | $28.38 |
| Share price (low) | $453.88 | $467.49 | $481.52 | $495.97 | $510.84 |
| Share price (high) | $756.46 | $779.16 | $802.53 | $826.61 | $851.41 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -5% / 58% | -1% / 28% | 0% / 19% | 1% / 15% | 1% / 12% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for MPC:
- Strong return on equity (27.3%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~14.9%) funds buybacks and dividends.
Bear Case
The case against MPC:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-0.9%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (3.4%) leave little room for error.
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 1.9x) adds financial risk.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.9x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-0.9%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (3.4%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: Marathon Petroleum is a large-cap energy business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 29.8x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (48/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 25 Wall Street analysts covering MPC recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Latest SEC Filings
MPC's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
MPC — frequently asked questions
Is MPC a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Marathon Petroleum Neutral (48/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is MPC's rating on The Stocks School?
Marathon Petroleum currently scores 48/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does MPC's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Marathon Petroleum's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for MPC calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this MPC analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell MPC. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.