MPC
Marathon Petroleum
$247.29
▲ 1.8%Updated Today 7:15 PM ET
▲ Up 45.1% over the last 12 months
Market Cap
$70.91B
P/E
15.13x
Forward P/E (est.)
10.81x
ROE
27.3%
Revenue Growth
-0.9%
EPS Growth
115.0%
Profit Margin
3.4%
FCF Yield
14.9%
Debt / Equity
1.9x
ROIC
33.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
1.18x
Dividend Yield
1.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
2.1%
Rating Score
53/100
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what MPC's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. MPC trades near $247.29, above its 50-day average ($244.93) and 200-day average ($206.97). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 45 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. MPC's is $8.96 (~3.6% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. Over the last month MPC found buyers near $241.36 (support) and sellers near $272.46 (resistance); its 52-week range is $158.00–$272.46. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.0× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is a large-cap company in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, part of the Energy sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $70.91B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $132.70B in revenue and $4.05B in net profit.
Our model rates MPC Neutral (53/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
4Y CAGR
2.6%
Revenue moved from $119.98B in 2021 to $132.70B in 2025, a 2.6% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 0.9% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Gross Margin
11.9%
Operating Margin
6.2%
Net Margin
3.0%
ROE
27.3%
Marathon Petroleum keeps about 3.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 11.9% gross margin and 6.2% operating margin. Return on equity is 27.3% and return on invested capital about 33.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.
Total Debt
$3.31B
Net Debt
$1.16B
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.14x
Debt / Equity
1.9x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.9x, with a current ratio of 1.2x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $3.31B of total debt against $2.15B of cash.
Operating CF
$8.25B
Free Cash Flow
$4.77B
FCF Margin
3.6%
In the latest year Marathon Petroleum produced about $8.25B of operating cash flow and $4.77B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 14.9% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
P/E
15.13x
P/S
0.54x
P/B
2.74x
EV / EBITDA
6.44x
MPC trades at 15.1x trailing earnings (about 10.8x on estimated forward earnings), 0.5x sales, and 2.7x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 2.1% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
Where this stock sits versus what most companies trade at.
Typical ranges are general references (e.g., many stocks trade at ~18–26x earnings), not hard rules. Context only — not investment advice.
How MPC stacks up against its Energy peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
In the Energy sector (21 S&P 500 companies), MPC ranks #12 of 21 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (15.1x P/E vs. 18.9x median) with a higher return on equity (27.3% vs. 14.8%) and slower revenue growth (-0.9% vs. -0.4%).
P/E vs sector
15.1x
median 18.9x
ROE vs sector
27.3%
median 14.8%
Growth vs sector
-0.9%
median -0.4%
Sector rank
#12
of 21 by rating
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Energy companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 21 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
2030 price target (Base Case)
$142.28 – $237.13
vs. $247.29 today · expected CAGR -10% – -1%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $136.68B | $140.78B | $145.00B | $149.35B | $153.83B |
| Net income | $4.10B | $4.22B | $4.35B | $4.48B | $4.62B |
| EPS | $14.05 | $14.47 | $14.90 | $15.35 | $15.81 |
| Share price (low) | $126.41 | $130.20 | $134.11 | $138.13 | $142.28 |
| Share price (high) | $210.68 | $217.00 | $223.51 | $230.22 | $237.13 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -49% / -15% | -27% / -6% | -18% / -3% | -14% / -2% | -10% / -1% |
Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.
The case for MPC:
- Strong return on equity (27.3%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~14.9%) funds buybacks and dividends.
The case against MPC:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-0.9%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (3.4%) leave little room for error.
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 1.9x) adds financial risk.
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.9x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-0.9%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (3.4%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
On balance, the picture is mixed: Marathon Petroleum is a large-cap energy business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 15.1x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (53/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.