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MPC

S&P 500
Neutral · 53/100

Marathon Petroleum

Energy
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

$247.29

1.8%

Updated Today 7:15 PM ET

Price — Past Year

▲ Up 45.1% over the last 12 months

Price 50-day average 200-day averageSource: Yahoo Finance · refreshed daily
Key Metrics

Market Cap

$70.91B

P/E

15.13x

Forward P/E (est.)

10.81x

ROE

27.3%

Revenue Growth

-0.9%

EPS Growth

115.0%

Profit Margin

3.4%

FCF Yield

14.9%

Debt / Equity

1.9x

ROIC

33.0%

Interest Coverage

Current Ratio

1.18x

Dividend Yield

1.6%

Implied Growth (rev. DCF)

2.1%

Rating Score

53/100

Technical Analysis (Educational)
Research

Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what MPC's chart says today, with each tool explained.

Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. MPC trades near $247.29, above its 50-day average ($244.93) and 200-day average ($206.97). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.

Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 45 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.

MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.

Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. MPC's is $8.96 (~3.6% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.

Support & resistance. Over the last month MPC found buyers near $241.36 (support) and sellers near $272.46 (resistance); its 52-week range is $158.00–$272.46. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.

Volume. The latest session traded 1.0× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.

Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. It updates daily as the price and indicators change.

Business Overview
Research

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is a large-cap company in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, part of the Energy sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $70.91B.

In its latest reported year it generated about $132.70B in revenue and $4.05B in net profit.

Our model rates MPC Neutral (53/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.

Revenue Growth
Research

4Y CAGR

2.6%

Revenue moved from $119.98B in 2021 to $132.70B in 2025, a 2.6% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 0.9% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?

Profitability
Research

Gross Margin

11.9%

Operating Margin

6.2%

Net Margin

3.0%

ROE

27.3%

Marathon Petroleum keeps about 3.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 11.9% gross margin and 6.2% operating margin. Return on equity is 27.3% and return on invested capital about 33.0%. Thin margins leave less cushion if costs rise.

Debt Analysis
Research

Total Debt

$3.31B

Net Debt

$1.16B

Net Debt / EBITDA

0.14x

Debt / Equity

1.9x

Leverage: debt-to-equity is 1.9x, with a current ratio of 1.2x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $3.31B of total debt against $2.15B of cash.

Cash Flow Analysis
Research

Operating CF

$8.25B

Free Cash Flow

$4.77B

FCF Margin

3.6%

In the latest year Marathon Petroleum produced about $8.25B of operating cash flow and $4.77B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 14.9% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.

Valuation Analysis
Research

P/E

15.13x

P/S

0.54x

P/B

2.74x

EV / EBITDA

6.44x

MPC trades at 15.1x trailing earnings (about 10.8x on estimated forward earnings), 0.5x sales, and 2.7x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 2.1% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.

Metrics vs. Typical Range

Where this stock sits versus what most companies trade at.

TTM P/E
15.1xCheap
Forward P/E
10.8xCheap
P/S ratio
0.5xCheap
Revenue growth
-0.9%Weak
EPS growth
115.0%Strong
Gross margin
11.9%Weak
Net margin
3.4%Weak
ROE
27.3%Strong

Typical ranges are general references (e.g., many stocks trade at ~18–26x earnings), not hard rules. Context only — not investment advice.

Sector Peer Comparison

How MPC stacks up against its Energy peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.

In the Energy sector (21 S&P 500 companies), MPC ranks #12 of 21 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (15.1x P/E vs. 18.9x median) with a higher return on equity (27.3% vs. 14.8%) and slower revenue growth (-0.9% vs. -0.4%).

P/E vs sector

15.1x

median 18.9x

ROE vs sector

27.3%

median 14.8%

Growth vs sector

-0.9%

median -0.4%

Sector rank

#12

of 21 by rating

CompanyP/ERev Gr.Rating
MPCThis stock15.1x-0.9%Neutral· 53
VLO16.9x-2.8%Neutral· 57
PSX16.1x-2.4%Neutral· 55
KMI21.2x13.1%Favorable· 68
SLB21.6x-0.4%Neutral· 48
EOG12.6x2.7%Favorable· 63
BKR18.9x0.2%Neutral· 53
WMB32x10.7%Favorable· 59
Energy median18.9x-0.4%53/100

Valuation vs. quality map

sector medianVLOPSXKMISLBEOGBKRWMBMPCP/E — cheaper ←→ pricierROE — more profitable ↑

The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.

Compare side by side

Peers are the closest Energy companies by sub-industry and size. Sector median is across all 21 S&P 500 names in the sector. Educational, not a recommendation.

5-Year Projection Model

Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.

2030 price target (Base Case)

$142.28$237.13

vs. $247.29 today · expected CAGR -10%-1%

Metric20262027202820292030
Revenue$136.68B$140.78B$145.00B$149.35B$153.83B
Net income$4.10B$4.22B$4.35B$4.48B$4.62B
EPS$14.05$14.47$14.90$15.35$15.81
Share price (low)$126.41$130.20$134.11$138.13$142.28
Share price (high)$210.68$217.00$223.51$230.22$237.13
CAGR (low–high)-49% / -15%-27% / -6%-18% / -3%-14% / -2%-10% / -1%

Educational model on sample fundamentals — not a forecast or investment advice. Outputs are only as good as your assumptions.

Bull Case

The case for MPC:

  • Strong return on equity (27.3%) shows capital is put to work well.
  • Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~14.9%) funds buybacks and dividends.
Bear Case

The case against MPC:

  • Revenue growth is slow/negative (-0.9%), limiting the upside engine.
  • Thin net margins (3.4%) leave little room for error.
  • Elevated leverage (debt/equity 1.9x) adds financial risk.
Key Risks
Research

Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 1.9x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.

Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-0.9%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.

Margin risk — thin profitability (3.4%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.

Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.

Investment Thesis
Research

On balance, the picture is mixed: Marathon Petroleum is a large-cap energy business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 15.1x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (53/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.

Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.

Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.