VST Vistra Corp.
$153.43
▼ 0.5%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
VST at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 55/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 9.6% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$53.48B
P/E
22.32x
Forward P/E (est.)
23.59x
ROE
43.3%
Revenue Growth
15.7%
EPS Growth
-5.4%
Profit Margin
12.2%
FCF Yield
5.3%
Debt / Equity
4.1x
ROIC
6.0%
Interest Coverage
2.58x
Current Ratio
0.97x
Dividend Yield
0.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
6.4%
Rating Score
55/100
Business Overview
Vistra Corp. (VST) is a large-cap company in the Electric Utilities industry, part of the Utilities sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $53.48B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $17.74B in revenue and $944.00M in net profit.
Our model rates VST Neutral (55/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (9 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
17.5% average over the last 3 years
±11.5 pts around 7.8% across 9 years
grew in 7 of the last 8 year-over-year periods
positive in 7 of 9 years
6.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what VST's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. VST trades near $153.43, below its 50-day average ($154.41) and 200-day average ($168.60). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 55 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. VST's is $7.18 (~4.7% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, VST found buyers near $137.91 (support) and sellers near $171.35 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $132.66–$219.82. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.0× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
10.1%
Revenue moved from $5.43B in 2017 to $17.74B in 2025, a 15.9% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 15.7% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
8.7%
Operating Margin
10.7%
Net Margin
5.3%
ROE
43.3%
Vistra Corp. keeps about 12.2% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 8.7% gross margin and 10.7% operating margin. Return on equity is 43.3% and return on invested capital about 6.0%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$19.59B
Net Debt
$19.16B
Net Debt / EBITDA
10.05x
Debt / Equity
4.1x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 4.1x, and operating profit covers interest about 2.6x, with a current ratio of 1.0x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it. It carries roughly $19.59B of total debt against $435.00M of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$4.07B
Free Cash Flow
$1.32B
FCF Margin
7.4%
In the latest year Vistra Corp. produced about $4.07B of operating cash flow and $1.32B of free cash flow after capital spending. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 5.3% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
0.6%
Per share (latest FY)
$0.90
Total paid (latest FY)
$306.00M
History on record
7 years
dividend uses 23% of free cash flow
32% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 1 year in a row
no cuts in the last 7 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
22.32x
P/S
2.84x
P/B
10.75x
EV / EBITDA
—
VST trades at 22.3x trailing earnings (about 23.6x on estimated forward earnings), 2.8x sales, and 10.7x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 6.4% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is a fairly typical valuation for a profitable company.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$128.90
Current price
$153.43
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.32B
Growth, years 1–5
15.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where VST sits versus the Utilities companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 38 Utilities companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How VST stacks up against its Utilities peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 38 rated Utilities companies we cover, VST ranks #18 by our overall rating. It trades at roughly in line versus the sector on earnings (22.3x P/E vs. 20.5x median) with a higher return on equity (43.3% vs. 10.3%) and faster revenue growth (15.7% vs. 8.8%).
P/E vs sector
22.3x
median 20.5x
ROE vs sector
43.3%
median 10.3%
Growth vs sector
15.7%
median 8.8%
Sector rank
#18
of 38 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Utilities companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 38 rated companies among the 47 Utilities stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$69.47 – $117.57
vs. $153.43 today · implied CAGR -15% – -5%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.58B | $23.87B | $27.69B | $32.12B | $37.26B |
| Net income | $1.03B | $1.19B | $1.38B | $1.61B | $1.86B |
| EPS | $2.95 | $3.42 | $3.97 | $4.61 | $5.34 |
| Share price (low) | $38.37 | $44.51 | $51.63 | $59.89 | $69.47 |
| Share price (high) | $64.93 | $75.32 | $87.37 | $101.35 | $117.57 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -75% / -58% | -46% / -30% | -30% / -17% | -21% / -10% | -15% / -5% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for VST:
- Revenue is growing 15.7% a year, a sign of real demand.
- Strong return on equity (43.3%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~5.3%) funds buybacks and dividends.
Bear Case
The case against VST:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 4.1x) adds financial risk.
- Interest coverage is thin (2.6x), so debt costs bite.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 4.1x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: Vistra Corp. is a large-cap utilities business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 22.3x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (55/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Latest SEC Filings
VST's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
VST — frequently asked questions
Is VST a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Vistra Corp. Neutral (55/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is VST's rating on The Stocks School?
Vistra Corp. currently scores 55/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does VST's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Vistra Corp.'s SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for VST calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this VST analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell VST. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.