AES AES Corporation
$14.95
▼ 0.1%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
AES at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Neutral · 48/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 39.0% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$10.40B
P/E
7.91x
Forward P/E (est.)
7.57x
ROE
34.4%
Revenue Growth
3.0%
EPS Growth
4.5%
Profit Margin
10.8%
FCF Yield
6.5%
Debt / Equity
7.36x
ROIC
—
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
0.75x
Dividend Yield
4.8%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
48/100
Business Overview
AES Corporation (AES) is a large-cap company in the Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders industry, part of the Utilities sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $10.40B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $12.23B in revenue and $910.00M in net profit.
Our model rates AES Neutral (48/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
18.9% average over the last 3 years
±2.8 pts around 22.3% across 10 years
grew in 5 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 5 of 10 years
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what AES's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. AES trades near $14.95, above its 50-day average ($14.57) and 200-day average ($14.42). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 38 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently negative — short-term momentum is fading.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. AES's is $0.06 (~0.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, AES found buyers near $14.55 (support) and sellers near $14.74 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $10.79–$17.65. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.9× the 20-day average — heavier than usual, which adds conviction to the move. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
2.4%
Revenue moved from $10.28B in 2016 to $12.23B in 2025, a 2.0% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year was roughly flat (3.0%) year over year. Slower, mature growth is common for established businesses.
Profitability
Gross Margin
18.1%
Operating Margin
13.2%
Net Margin
7.4%
ROE
34.4%
AES Corporation keeps about 10.8% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 18.1% gross margin and 13.2% operating margin. Return on equity is 34.4%. Margins are moderate — typical of a competitive but profitable business.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
—
Net Debt
—
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
7.36x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 7.4x, with a current ratio of 0.8x. That is elevated leverage, which raises risk if earnings or rates move against it.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$4.31B
Free Cash Flow
-$1.62B
FCF Margin
-13.3%
In the latest year AES Corporation produced about $4.31B of operating cash flow but negative free cash flow as it invested heavily. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about 6.5% on today's price. Strong cash generation funds dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
4.8%
Per share (latest FY)
$0.70
Total paid (latest FY)
$501.00M
History on record
10 years
free cash flow was negative in the latest year — the dividend is being financed
55% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
7.91x
P/S
0.86x
P/B
2.57x
EV / EBITDA
—
AES trades at 7.9x trailing earnings (about 7.6x on estimated forward earnings), 0.9x sales, and 2.6x book value. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where AES sits versus the Utilities companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 38 Utilities companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How AES stacks up against its Utilities peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 38 rated Utilities companies we cover, AES ranks #26 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (7.9x P/E vs. 20.5x median) with a higher return on equity (34.4% vs. 10.3%) and slower revenue growth (3.0% vs. 8.8%).
P/E vs sector
7.9x
median 20.5x
ROE vs sector
34.4%
median 10.3%
Growth vs sector
3.0%
median 8.8%
Sector rank
#26
of 38 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Utilities companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 38 rated companies among the 47 Utilities stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$7.14 – $11.42
vs. $14.95 today · implied CAGR -14% – -5%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.60B | $12.98B | $13.37B | $13.77B | $14.18B |
| Net income | $882.00M | $908.46M | $935.71M | $963.78M | $992.70M |
| EPS | $1.27 | $1.31 | $1.35 | $1.39 | $1.43 |
| Share price (low) | $6.34 | $6.53 | $6.73 | $6.93 | $7.14 |
| Share price (high) | $10.15 | $10.45 | $10.76 | $11.09 | $11.42 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -58% / -32% | -34% / -16% | -23% / -10% | -17% / -7% | -14% / -5% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for AES:
- Strong return on equity (34.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- Healthy free-cash-flow yield (~6.5%) funds buybacks and dividends.
- Pays a 4.8% dividend on top of any price gains.
Bear Case
The case against AES:
- Elevated leverage (debt/equity 7.4x) adds financial risk.
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Balance-sheet risk — debt/equity of 7.4x magnifies the impact of higher rates or weaker earnings.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the picture is mixed: AES Corporation is a large-cap utilities business growing at a mature pace, with modest profitability, and a heavier debt load to watch. It trades at 7.9x earnings, which our model scores Neutral (48/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Latest SEC Filings
AES's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
AES — frequently asked questions
Is AES a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates AES Corporation Neutral (48/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is AES's rating on The Stocks School?
AES Corporation currently scores 48/100 (Neutral) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does AES's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from AES Corporation's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for AES calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this AES analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell AES. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.