UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$401.28
▼ 1.3%Updated Today 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
UNH at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 41/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 30.5% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$386.29B
P/E
30.97x
Forward P/E (est.)
44.24x
ROE
12.4%
Revenue Growth
9.7%
EPS Growth
-44.6%
Profit Margin
2.7%
FCF Yield
6.9%
Debt / Equity
0.83x
ROIC
15.0%
Interest Coverage
4.74x
Current Ratio
0.78x
Dividend Yield
2.3%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
4.6%
Rating Score
41/100
Business Overview
UnitedHealth is the largest U.S. managed-care organization, pairing health-insurance scale with the vertically integrated Optum services platform, which now drives a growing share of earnings.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedSome durable-advantage evidence, but not across the board — dig into which ingredient is weak and whether it's cyclical or structural.
7.0% average over the last 3 years
±1.3 pts around 7.7% across 10 years
grew in 9 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 10 of 10 years
15.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Trade Setup & Technical Analysis
Institutional-style technical read — sample, educational only
Uptrend — price ($401.28) is above the 50-day ($390.46) and 200-day ($337.30) averages.
Setup type
Trend-continuation swing
Holding time
1–6 weeks
Risk level
Medium
Risk / reward
1 : 2.4
Trade levels
Entry zone
$395.26 – $401.28
Stop loss
$384.71
Target 1
$430.20
Target 2
$437.05
Target 3
$457.49
Position sizing: Scale in; risk ≤ 1% of capital, half-size to start.
Technical analysis
RSI(14) is firm (63); the MACD histogram is positive (upward momentum). Uptrend — price ($401.28) is above the 50-day ($390.46) and 200-day ($337.30) averages. ATR(14) is $10.22 (~2.5% of price), which sets the stop distance. Recent support sits near $389.82 and resistance near $430.20; the 52-week range is $234.60–$430.20.
Fundamental analysis
Revenue is stable at 9.7%, net margin near 2.7%, ROE roughly 12.4%; shares trade at 31x earnings. Quality score: 41/100.
Options flow
Live options-flow data needs a paid feed, so it isn't shown. For realized volatility, ATR of $10.22 (~2.5%/day) is the range to size stops and any option strikes around.
Volume analysis
The latest session traded 0.5× the 20-day average volume — below average, so conviction is light.
Catalysts
The next quarterly earnings report is the main near-term catalyst. Technically, watch for a break and hold above $430.20 or a loss of $389.82.
Bullish scenario
Vertical integration with Optum diversifies and grows earnings.
Bearish scenario
Regulatory and political risk to medical-loss ratios and pricing.
Invalidation
A daily close below $384.71 invalidates this setup read.
Probability-based scenario using sample data — not a recommendation or a guarantee of profit. Prioritize capital preservation, use stops, and size positions for risk. Past performance does not predict future results.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what UNH's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. UNH trades near $401.28, above its 50-day average ($390.46) and 200-day average ($337.30). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 63 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. UNH's is $10.22 (~2.5% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, UNH found buyers near $389.82 (support) and sellers near $430.20 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $234.60–$430.20. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.5× the 20-day average — lighter than usual, so the move carries less conviction. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
11.7%
Revenue grew from $184.84B in 2016 to $447.57B in 2025, a 10.3% CAGR. The most recent year grew about 9.7% year over year, a moderate pace consistent with a mature business.
Profitability
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
4.2%
Net Margin
2.7%
ROE
12.4%
Gross margin runs near 24.0% with operating margin around 4.1% and net margin near 2.7%. Return on equity of roughly 12.4% indicates moderate capital efficiency, and the margin profile has trended steady over the period shown.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$73.12B
Net Debt
$44.54B
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.35x
Debt / Equity
0.83x
Interest-bearing debt is about 12.0% of market capitalization and the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.83x. Leverage is moderate and manageable relative to cash flow.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$19.70B
Free Cash Flow
$16.07B
FCF Margin
3.6%
Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds reported net income, and free cash flow yield is around 6.9%. Cash generation is robust and supports buybacks, dividends, and reinvestment.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe payout is comfortably covered by cash the business actually generates, with a raise habit behind it.
Dividend yield
2.3%
Per share (latest FY)
$8.73
Total paid (latest FY)
$7.92B
History on record
10 years
dividend uses 49% of free cash flow
66% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 9 years in a row
no cuts in the last 10 years on record
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
30.97x
P/S
0.83x
P/B
3.2x
EV / EBITDA
13x
Shares trade at roughly 31x trailing earnings (16x forward), 0.8x sales, and 13x EV/EBITDA. That is a full but defensible multiple for a quality franchise. Our internal rating is Weak.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$422.60
Current price
$401.28
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$16.07B
Growth, years 1–5
9.7%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where UNH sits versus the Health Care companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 83 Health Care companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How UNH stacks up against its Health Care peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 83 rated Health Care companies we cover, UNH ranks #62 by our overall rating. It trades at a premium versus the sector on earnings (31x P/E vs. 26x median) with a lower return on equity (12.4% vs. 14.1%) and faster revenue growth (9.7% vs. 7.6%).
P/E vs sector
31x
median 26x
ROE vs sector
12.4%
median 14.1%
Growth vs sector
9.7%
median 7.6%
Sector rank
#62
of 83 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Health Care companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 83 rated companies among the 324 Health Care stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$426.81 – $696.37
vs. $401.28 today · implied CAGR 1% – 12%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $492.32B | $541.56B | $595.71B | $655.28B | $720.81B |
| Net income | $14.77B | $16.25B | $17.87B | $19.66B | $21.62B |
| EPS | $15.34 | $16.88 | $18.56 | $20.42 | $22.46 |
| Share price (low) | $291.52 | $320.67 | $352.73 | $388.01 | $426.81 |
| Share price (high) | $475.63 | $523.19 | $575.51 | $633.06 | $696.37 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -27% / 19% | -11% / 14% | -4% / 13% | -1% / 12% | 1% / 12% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
- Vertical integration with Optum diversifies and grows earnings.
- Scale advantages in cost control and data.
- Steady demand and consistent cash generation.
Bear Case
- Regulatory and political risk to medical-loss ratios and pricing.
- Rising medical-cost trends pressure margins.
- Headline risk around insurance practices can compress the multiple.
Key Risks
- Healthcare policy and reimbursement changes.
- Medical-cost inflation.
- Litigation and regulatory scrutiny.
Final Investment Thesis
UnitedHealth is a scaled managed-care leader whose Optum arm keeps compounding earnings; the main risks are political and medical-cost pressure, not demand.
Analyst Ratings
What 34 Wall Street analysts covering UNH recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more positive over the last three months (+3 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
UNH's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
UNH — frequently asked questions
Is UNH a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Weak (41/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is UNH's rating on The Stocks School?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated currently scores 41/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does UNH's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for UNH calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this UNH analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell UNH. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.