MRNA Moderna
$211.56
▼ 10.5%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
MRNA at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Weak · 17/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▲ Up 151.8% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$31.65B
P/E
—
Forward P/E (est.)
—
ROE
-36.7%
Revenue Growth
-30.0%
EPS Growth
—
Profit Margin
-143.6%
FCF Yield
-13.6%
Debt / Equity
0.07x
ROIC
-33.0%
Interest Coverage
—
Current Ratio
2.29x
Dividend Yield
—
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
—
Rating Score
17/100
Business Overview
Moderna (MRNA) is a large-cap company in the Biotechnology industry, part of the Health Care sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $31.65B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $1.94B in revenue and posted a net loss of $2.82B.
Our model rates MRNA Weak (17/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (6 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
-114.0% average over the last 3 years
±332.1 pts around -188.0% across 6 years
grew in 2 of the last 5 year-over-year periods
positive in 2 of 6 years
-33.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what MRNA's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. MRNA trades near $211.56, above its 50-day average ($52.65) and 200-day average ($41.12). Price above both averages, with the shorter one above the longer, is the textbook definition of an uptrend — momentum favours buyers.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 86 it is overbought — the recent rally is stretched and can cool off.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. MRNA's is $5.54 (~2.6% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, MRNA found buyers near $45.40 (support) and sellers near $81.40 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $22.28–$81.40. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 1.5× the 20-day average — heavier than usual, which adds conviction to the move. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
-43.0%
Revenue moved from $60.21M in 2019 to $1.94B in 2025, a 100.4% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year declined 30.0% year over year. Shrinking revenue is worth a closer look — is it cyclical or structural?
Profitability
Gross Margin
35.0%
Operating Margin
-158.1%
Net Margin
-145.2%
ROE
-36.7%
Moderna keeps about -143.6% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 35.0% gross margin and -158.1% operating margin. Return on equity is -36.7% and return on invested capital about -33.0%. The company is currently unprofitable on a net basis.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$591.00M
Net Debt
-$1.13B
Net cash position
Net Debt / EBITDA
—
Debt / Equity
0.07x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.1x, with a current ratio of 2.3x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $591.00M of total debt against $1.72B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
-$1.87B
Free Cash Flow
-$2.06B
FCF Margin
-106.2%
In the latest year Moderna produced about -$1.87B of operating cash flow but negative free cash flow as it invested heavily. That is a free-cash-flow yield of about -13.6% on today's price. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
—
P/S
11.31x
P/B
5.09x
EV / EBITDA
—
MRNA trades at n/a trailing earnings, 11.3x sales, and 5.1x book value. With no positive trailing earnings, value it on sales, cash flow, or growth rather than P/E.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where MRNA sits versus the Health Care companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 83 Health Care companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How MRNA stacks up against its Health Care peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 83 rated Health Care companies we cover, MRNA ranks #83 by our overall rating.
P/E vs sector
—
median 26.1x
ROE vs sector
-36.7%
median 14.1%
Growth vs sector
-30.0%
median 7.6%
Sector rank
#83
of 83 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Health Care companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 83 rated companies among the 324 Health Care stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$5.42 – $9.04
vs. $211.56 today · implied CAGR -52% – -47%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.00B | $2.06B | $2.12B | $2.19B | $2.25B |
| Net income | $60.07M | $61.87M | $63.73M | $65.64M | $67.61M |
| EPS | $0.40 | $0.41 | $0.43 | $0.44 | $0.45 |
| Share price (low) | $4.82 | $4.96 | $5.11 | $5.27 | $5.42 |
| Share price (high) | $8.03 | $8.27 | $8.52 | $8.78 | $9.04 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -98% / -96% | -85% / -80% | -71% / -66% | -60% / -55% | -52% / -47% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions. Growth, margin or P/E data is missing for this stock, so some starting values above are placeholders rather than measurements.
Bull Case
The case for MRNA:
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.1x) lowers risk.
- As an established S&P 500 member in Health Care, it brings scale and a long operating history.
Bear Case
The case against MRNA:
- Revenue growth is slow/negative (-30.0%), limiting the upside engine.
- Thin net margins (-143.6%) leave little room for error.
- Limited free cash flow at today's price.
- Our model's overall read is Weak (17/100).
Key Risks
Growth risk — sluggish revenue (-30.0%) leaves little margin for execution missteps.
Margin risk — thin profitability (-143.6%) is vulnerable to cost or pricing pressure.
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen weakly: Moderna is a large-cap health care business with shrinking revenue, with modest profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at n/a earnings, which our model scores Weak (17/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Latest SEC Filings
MRNA's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
In the Idea Lab
MRNA — frequently asked questions
Is MRNA a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Moderna Weak (17/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is MRNA's rating on The Stocks School?
Moderna currently scores 17/100 (Weak) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does MRNA's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Moderna's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for MRNA calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this MRNA analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell MRNA. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.