EXE Expand Energy
$93.52
▲ 3.0%Updated Oct 16, 2:25 PM ET
Report Card
EXE at a glance — five pillars scored 0–100 from real filed financials.
How the 0–100 rating is calculatedOverall: Favorable · 68/100. A wider, greener shape means more pillars look healthy. Dividends scores 0 when a company pays none — that is a choice, not a flaw.
Price — Past Year
▼ Down 28.0% in the year to Jul 6, 2026
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$21.70B
P/E
6.9x
Forward P/E (est.)
9.85x
ROE
17.4%
Revenue Growth
170.6%
EPS Growth
-39.3%
Profit Margin
22.4%
FCF Yield
—
Debt / Equity
0.27x
ROIC
8.0%
Interest Coverage
23.76x
Current Ratio
1.11x
Dividend Yield
2.6%
Implied Growth (rev. DCF)
0.5%
Rating Score
68/100
Business Overview
Expand Energy (EXE) is a large-cap company in the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production industry, part of the Energy sector of the S&P 500, with a market value around $21.70B.
In its latest reported year it generated about $12.12B in revenue and $1.82B in net profit.
Our model rates EXE Favorable (68/100) on growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation. The summary below is built from its filed financials and current ratios and refreshes automatically.
Economic Moat
Evidence of durable competitive advantage in the filed financials (10 years of history).
Profit margins and economic moats, explainedThe numbers don't show a durable competitive advantage — margins, growth, or returns on capital have been unstable or thin. Great returns are still possible; they just aren't protected.
12.5% average over the last 3 years
±56.9 pts around -13.4% across 10 years
grew in 4 of the last 9 year-over-year periods
positive in 9 of 10 years
8.0% latest fiscal year
A moat can't be proven by numbers alone — this scores the evidence a durable advantage leaves behind (pricing power, consistency, returns on capital), computed the same way for every stock. Pair it with the business overview before concluding anything.
Technical Analysis (Educational)
Technical analysis reads price and volume to judge momentum and timing. It complements the fundamentals above — it does not replace them. Here is what EXE's chart says today, with each tool explained.
Trend — moving averages. A moving average is the average closing price over a window, which smooths out daily noise. EXE trades near $93.52, below its 50-day average ($93.65) and 200-day average ($103.99). Price below both averages is a downtrend — momentum is against buyers for now.
Momentum — RSI. The Relative Strength Index runs 0–100 and measures how strong recent gains are versus losses. Above 70 is "overbought", below 30 "oversold". At 63 it is in neutral territory — neither stretched nor washed out.
MACD. MACD compares two moving averages to flag shifts in momentum. Its histogram is currently positive — short-term momentum is improving.
Volatility — ATR. Average True Range is the typical daily move. EXE's is $2.21 (~2.4% of price), so swings of about that size each day are normal — handy for setting a stop that isn't too tight.
Support & resistance. In the month to Jul 6, 2026, EXE found buyers near $86.37 (support) and sellers near $94.33 (resistance); its 52-week range then was $86.37–$126.62. A decisive break beyond either edge often marks the next move.
Volume. The latest session traded 0.8× the 20-day average — about normal. Rising volume on up-days suggests real buying; on down-days, real selling.
Educational information to help you read a chart — not a recommendation or a forecast. The indicators were last computed on Jul 6, 2026; the price is current.
Revenue Growth
4Y CAGR
21.6%
Revenue moved from $7.87B in 2016 to $12.12B in 2025, a 4.9% compound annual growth rate. The most recent year grew a strong 170.6% year over year. Consistent top-line growth is one sign of healthy demand.
Profitability
Gross Margin
76.5%
Operating Margin
20.4%
Net Margin
15.0%
ROE
17.4%
Expand Energy keeps about 22.4% of each sales dollar as net profit, with a 76.5% gross margin and 20.4% operating margin. Return on equity is 17.4% and return on invested capital about 8.0%. Margins this wide usually signal pricing power or a cost advantage.
Debt Analysis
Total Debt
$5.01B
Net Debt
$2.79B
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.13x
Debt / Equity
0.27x
Leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.3x, and operating profit covers interest about 23.8x, with a current ratio of 1.1x. That is a conservative balance sheet — a cushion in downturns. It carries roughly $5.01B of total debt against $2.22B of cash.
Cash Flow Analysis
Operating CF
$4.58B
Free Cash Flow
$1.84B
FCF Margin
15.2%
In the latest year Expand Energy produced about $4.58B of operating cash flow and $1.84B of free cash flow after capital spending. Cash flow is what ultimately pays shareholders, so it is worth tracking over time.
Dividend Safety
Can the payout survive a bad year? Scored from filed cash flow, earnings coverage, and the raise/cut record.
What to look for in a dividend stockThe dividend is being paid, but coverage or consistency is thinner than an income investor should rely on without a closer look.
Dividend yield
2.6%
Total paid (latest FY)
$765.00M
History on record
5 years
dividend uses 42% of free cash flow
42% of net income paid out
total dividends increased 1 year in a row
payout was cut at least once in the last 5 years
Coverage uses the latest fiscal year as filed with the SEC; the streak counts total dollars paid (per-share figures can carry split artifacts). Educational information, not income advice.
Valuation Analysis
P/E
6.9x
P/S
1.73x
P/B
1.5x
EV / EBITDA
—
EXE trades at 6.9x trailing earnings (about 9.9x on estimated forward earnings), 1.7x sales, and 1.5x book value. Reverse-engineering today's price implies the market expects roughly 0.5% long-term free-cash-flow growth. That is an undemanding multiple — potentially cheap if the business is stable.
DCF Fair Value (Educational)
A two-stage discounted cash flow on real SEC-filed free cash flow — the intrinsic-value anchor professional analysts triangulate from.
How this DCF estimate is calculatedDCF fair value / share
$318.33
Current price
$93.52
Starting FCF (latest 10-K)
$1.84B
Growth, years 1–5
20.0%
Fade to terminal, years 6–10
2.5%
Discount rate
9.0%
Cash flows grow at the stage-1 rate (trailing revenue growth, capped at 20%) for five years, fade to 2.5% by year 10, and continue at that rate forever (Gordon terminal value), all discounted at 9.0%. Small changes in assumptions move the result a lot — treat this as one reference point, not a target price. Educational only, not investment advice.
Metrics vs. Sector Range
Where EXE sits versus the Energy companies we cover.
Bands show the middle half (25th–75th percentile) of the 47 Energy companies in our coverage that have fundamentals data — the peer-relative anchor professional comps analysis uses. Context only — not investment advice.
Sector Peer Comparison
How EXE stacks up against its Energy peers — valuation, profitability, and growth versus the sector median.
Among the 47 rated Energy companies we cover, EXE ranks #7 by our overall rating. It trades at a discount versus the sector on earnings (6.9x P/E vs. 21.4x median) with a higher return on equity (17.4% vs. 13.3%) and faster revenue growth (170.6% vs. 0.7%).
P/E vs sector
6.9x
median 21.4x
ROE vs sector
17.4%
median 13.3%
Growth vs sector
170.6%
median 0.7%
Sector rank
#7
of 47 rated
Valuation vs. quality map
The sweet spot is upper-left: more profitable (higher ROE) for a lower P/E. Dashed lines mark the sector median.
Peers are the closest Energy companies by sub-industry and size, preferring ones with full data. Sector medians and rank use the 47 rated companies among the 57 Energy stocks we cover. Educational, not a recommendation.
5-Year Projection Model
Project revenue → earnings → price. Edit the assumptions to build your own case.
What drives this projection, and its limits2030 scenario price range (Base Case)
$251.15 – $401.84
vs. $93.52 today · implied CAGR 22% – 34%
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.58B | $25.49B | $36.96B | $53.59B | $77.71B |
| Net income | $2.64B | $3.82B | $5.54B | $8.04B | $11.66B |
| EPS | $11.36 | $16.48 | $23.89 | $34.64 | $50.23 |
| Share price (low) | $56.82 | $82.38 | $119.45 | $173.21 | $251.15 |
| Share price (high) | $90.90 | $131.81 | $191.13 | $277.13 | $401.84 |
| CAGR (low–high) | -39% / -3% | -6% / 19% | 9% / 27% | 17% / 31% | 22% / 34% |
Educational scenario model, not a forecast or investment advice. It starts from the latest annual revenue in SEC filings. By default, growth is trailing revenue growth (held between 3% and 45% a year), the net margin is the latest one (held between 3% and 50%, so a loss-making company is modeled with a small profit), and the Base case P/E runs from 60% to 100% of today's. Carrying recent growth forward five years can miss badly in either direction. Outputs are only as good as the assumptions.
Bull Case
The case for EXE:
- Revenue is growing 170.6% a year, a sign of real demand.
- High net margins (22.4%) point to pricing power or efficiency.
- Strong return on equity (17.4%) shows capital is put to work well.
- A conservative balance sheet (debt/equity 0.3x) lowers risk.
- Pays a 2.6% dividend on top of any price gains.
- Our model's overall read is Favorable (68/100).
Bear Case
The case against EXE:
- Like any single stock, it is exposed to competition, the economic cycle, and shifts in its end markets.
Key Risks
Market risk — sector rotation, the economic cycle, and broad sentiment move the stock regardless of fundamentals.
Investment Thesis
On balance, the fundamentals screen favourably: Expand Energy is a large-cap energy business still growing nicely, with solid profitability, and a sound balance sheet. It trades at 6.9x earnings, which our model scores Favorable (68/100). Weigh this against your own goals and time horizon — this is educational information, not a recommendation.
Analyst Ratings
What 30 Wall Street analysts covering EXE recommend (September 2026). Consensus is a useful sanity check — not a substitute for your own homework.
Analysts have turned more cautious over the last three months (-7 pts of buy ratings).
Latest SEC Filings
EXE's most recent filings, straight from SEC EDGAR. Annual and quarterly reports are the deep dives; 8-Ks flag material events the moment they happen. How to read a 10-K
EXE — frequently asked questions
Is EXE a good stock to buy?
We don't give buy or sell advice. Our model rates Expand Energy Favorable (68/100) based on its growth, profitability, financial health, and valuation — use that as a research starting point and make your own decision.
What is EXE's rating on The Stocks School?
Expand Energy currently scores 68/100 (Favorable) on our transparent model, which weighs real fundamentals: growth, margins, returns on capital, balance-sheet strength, and valuation.
How our ratings work →Where does EXE's data come from?
Live price data plus real fundamentals and 5-year financials pulled directly from Expand Energy's SEC filings — refreshed automatically, not hand-entered.
How is the 5-year projection for EXE calculated?
It's a scenario model. It starts from the latest annual revenue and net margin in SEC filings, grows revenue at an assumed rate (trailing revenue growth by default), and applies a P/E range built around today's multiple to show the resulting share-price range. When a stock has no growth or P/E data, the starting values are placeholders. It's a tool for thinking, not a prediction.
Is this EXE analysis financial advice?
No. Everything on this page is educational research, not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell EXE. Always do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
Data notice. Fundamentals and financial statements are sourced from company filings (SEC EDGAR) and market-data providers; prices and market caps refresh on trading days and may be delayed. Ratings, projections, technical signals, and written summaries are model- or rule-generated for education and may simplify or lag the latest filings.
Not advice. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before investing.